Who would be surprised to see villanova leave in a year or so and follow richmond to the patriot? Not me the caa is slowing falling apart but when you look back in five years it wont have been slowly falling if Villanova and others leave. right now i see charleston leaving as soon as a year or so and VN not far behind them. the conference cant get its act together and the north south south north travel budgets are a burden.
I’m calling it now. I give the CAA 5 years to be one of the worst conferences in D1. Lower than the America East, by far. For all sports I’m talking about. As far as just for football. Dead last. Hopefully I’m still alive in 5 yrs to see if I’m wrong or right, but. Like what you are saying. The CAA can’t get its act together and the good will leave, Leaving behind schools who traditionally shouldn’t even be in D1…
Ehhh, I dunno. I honestly don't think that will be the case.
First, Richmond's "dissatisfaction" with the CAA is not the only reason why they left. I think, like BU, they saw the writing on the wall for college athletics. Richmond is a small private college. It had the smallest enrollment of any CAA school. It can't keep up with the larger schools in football NIL and athletic funding. They're also an A-10 school, so don't really benefit from strongly funding football. So rather than accept a diminished standing at the upper echelon of FCS, they chose to enter a "pedigree" conference where that really doesn't matter and they can save money/sweat. I think it was a good call. Just like I thought BU's move was a good call. Competitiveness? Come on man, Bucknell, Colgate, and Fordham up until recently sucked at football. Lafayette and Lehigh rotate between good and bad seasons....Georgetown is terrible. Unless the FCS championship format is changed to a spelling bee, these guys don't come close to the CAA level on average most years.
Stony Brook has no reason to jump the CAA. It is a still a young school with a massive upward trajectory in all metrics that matter. It is also a medium-sized state, which makes it an eventual FBS candidate. Given that membership in the Big Sky and MVC are not options due to geography, I think that the CAA is the only mid-major conference that gives us a reasonable chance of going FBS in the near future. That's why we jumped the AEC. There's no other good reason for us to have done so. It doesn't mean that it happens this year or even in the next 5, but it does allow us to make the move when the time is right. I firmly believe that, and have gotten no indication that this isn't the plan. An apathetic President doesn't change my opinion. She had influence but there are many in the background that steer that move more profoundly.
The current CAA football setup has a nexus of solid northeastern and mid-atlantic state schools that could theoretically pull off FBS, but either aren't ready yet (us and maybe Towson) or don't want to.
Maine
U Albany
New Hampshire
Stony Brook
William & Mary
NC A&T
U Rhode Island
Towson University
They also have some tag along members who are privates and want to play up
Villanova
Elon
Hampton
Monmouth
Campbell
Those smaller programs aren't supposed to be CAA football champions with the exception of Villanova. The rest are full conference members that bring an overall competitive athletic program in other sports (ok, maybe not Hampton. Don't really get Hampton) and just so happen to dabble in football.
And for peace of mind, these were the RealTimeRPI rankings for the CAA vs. Patriot (they rank FBS and FCS combined)
Patriot:
Holy Cross - 62
Lafayette - 143
Fordham - 158
Colgate - 184
Georgetown - 193
Bucknell - 206
Lehigh - 235
CAA (in a down year and with a bunch of first year members):
Delaware - 49
William & Mary - 89
Rhode Island - 116
New Hampshire - 145
Villanova - 151
Hampton - 172
Elon - 180
Richmond - 183
Towson - 196
Campbell - 203
Monmouth - 209
Maine - 242
NC A&T - 243
Stony Brook - 250
Richmond - 183
By my count, excluding Delaware, SEVEN CAA teams were ranked better than the 4th place Patriot team. And Hampton beat Richmond, btw.
I think your response is a very good one. Outstanding comparisons of conferences and RS pecking order in the CAA. However. I disagree on a couple of points.
#1 I don't see SBU going FBS in the near or far future. This school has gotten away from D1 football, and that is evident with the recent president hires. Their high and low priorities are in research and lately, Green alternatives. So caring about sports, especially football is not even an option for its school. As a matter of fact. I see SBU dropping down to D3 as Hartford did. Just my opinion.
#2 Colgate and Fordham has been a football powerhouse for quite a few years now and the projector is even higher. i don't see them being a one-hit wonder school anymore. The momentum is on their side. I mean heck. D3 Cortland could play and compete in the FCS and make some noise lately. These are schools that have high aspirations in sports. SBU clearly and quite obviously does not.
#3 SBU got half a billion Dollars from Simon to do what they wanted with the money. Why haven't they installed lighting at the men's baseball field yet?

Dont tell me things like this take time to start.
Like I said earlier. Your thesis is highly respected and a good one, but it is also your opinion. Like mine is my opinion too. I am just not as optimistic as you are about the direction of this school's sports program moving forward...