I do think Stony Brook has upward mobility potential. I thought given Stony Brook's football program the CAA would be ideal in the interim before moving to a FBS league like the MAC.
The rumor has been that Stu Rabinowitz at Hofstra has been blocking Stony Brook as an all-sports addition to the CAA which is unfortunate. America East to the CAA is a jump that has been done several times before with schools like Towson, Delaware, Hofstra, and Northeastern all former members who made the jump. It would make sense as a logical next step for Stony Brook as well.
I don't know that I've ever heard of an America East school jumping up immediately to the A-10. That's a huge jump in men's basketball although admittedly not so much in many other sports. The A-10 is a basketball league through and through. That's another consideration. For example SB making the College World Series in baseball was a big deal, the A-10 is pretty bad in that sport. The CAA is a lot better. As an all-sports league, the CAA is actually much more well-rounded and has a very, very strong FCS product whereas the A-10 has no football league at all.
Stony Brook's AAU affiliation is also very impressive and will add academic prestige to any conference it joins. To be honest the CAA has a better level of academic membership than that of the A-10 as well. That's something to consider for any school president.
The A-10 is for schools that are singularly focused on men's basketball. That's what our administration is committed to and we do it very well. UMass is an exception with FBS football, and it makes them a bit of a flight risk. For that reason I think the A-10 will be extremely wary of adding Stony Brook. Temple was a long time A-10 standard-bearer but FBS football ultimately led to their departure.
Football vs. Basketball has been a real part of conference realignment and every conference is trying to build stability through any additions they make. As a basketball conference, the A-10 has been largely insulated from realignment since most shifts in the past have occurred due to football allegiances dictating where schools go. With the Big East now being another basketball-only league, that changed last year. That said, the attrition with basketball schools will be limited due to having less basketball conferences out there and the A-10 being near the top in the category.
To be honest I see schools like Siena or Charleston more likely due to the fact that they are committed to basketball only and present more stable additions who will stick around. That's my honest take on it.
I do think the best conference for Stony Brook is an all-sports conference in the CAA to build their FCS product before eventually moving on to an all-sports FBS conference like the MAC. I'm certain this is where Fiore eventually wants the school's AD if he's being honest. The A-10 can't provide that so I can't imagine we'd entertain Stony Brook seriously. That's not an indictment of Stony Brook by any means, it's just a bad fit because we want different things.