Seawolves Fans

UMBC (14-16, 7-8 America East)
Last 10: 6-4
Last Game: Maine 74, UMBC 48 on 2/29/20
Last Game with SBU: Stony Brook 74, UMBC 63 on 2/1/20; Olaniyi game-high 21; UMBC 5-26 from three
Checkmate Unofficial Line: Stony Brook -2
NET Ranking: TBA
KenPom Rating: Stony Brook 174, UMBC 276
KenPom Prediction: Stony Brook 66, UMBC 63
Listen/Watch:
TV: https://umbcretrievers.com/links/mj7lov
Notables:
6-2/180 sr G KJ Jackson 13.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.6 spg
6-10/210 jr F Brandon Horvath 10.5 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.0 spg, .351 3-pt FG%
6-3/225 so F RJ Eytle-Rock 9.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.5 apg, .364 3-pt FG%
6-3/165 so G LJ Owens 9.5 ppg, .352 3-pt FG%, .845 FT%
6-8/240 jr F Dimitrije Spasojevic 9.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg, .609 FG%

This isn't the team that I want to face with the 2 on the line. They just got humiliated up in Maine, and you forget just how good they were for three weeks, winning five straight games to launch themselves back into contention for a first-round home game.

They'll undoubtedly steal an occasional glance at Durham on Tuesday night. If UNH happens to falter against Lowell, that puts UMBC in the driver's seat for the #4 spot, with Albany needing to go to Vermont in their finale. I don't care if UVM has clinched; that's not a good UA team. If UMBC and UNH are even at 8-8, UMBC gets the nod with its win over top-ranked UVM. But they need that UNH gaffe to happen first.

Care to guess who our best three-point shooter has been in conference? Answer: Makale Foreman, who's been in a terrible shooting slump yet is still our best option at 32-plus percent in AE play. He had a couple eye-roll hoists against UA. The bottom line is though that we're going to need him if we want to make a run.

I wonder if Elijah returns for this one. Do we really want his re-entry into the lineup to come during the AE tournament, or can he give us some minutes in the finale?

I think when considering where we stand in the conference tournament, it's important to remember that none of these teams are invincible. Beating Vermont at Patrick will undoubtedly be a tall task, but we've shown it can be done – and had a lead late even without Olaniyi. Of course, the win feels like a decade ago with the way we're playing now, but for 40 minutes, sure, we can do it.

With UMBC, you may recall that Spasojevic dropped 17 on us and was the only one scoring when UMBC wasn't knocking them down from deep. He's a traditional back-to-the-basket guy, which you don't see too much of in the AE. However, he was hurt in the Maine game and his status is uncertain for Tuesday. We'll take any edge we can get.

It feels like the last few times we've played UMBC – ever since Will Darley lit us up at IFCU a couple years back – the Retrievers have shot the ball poorly from deep. 5 for 26 last game against us, and they were 3 for 23 in Bangor. That's kind of the difference between the America East and the power conferences. Guys in the latter category knock down open threes; in our league they do so with less regularity. As far as threes go, UMBC and SBU rank seventh and eighth in conference play, both around 30 percent. Looking at it more broadly, according to KenPom, only Vermont (92) and UMass Lowell (144) rank in the top 200 in adjusted offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions against average defense).

Both teams need it. Ought to be a good game ... which is to say close. Doubtful that it's pretty.

The question I have is, does this game mean everything, or does this game mean nothing.  We have no clue how 5, 6, and 7 are going to work out so this really means hosting Hartford in a semi or going to Hartford for a semi.

Edited 35 seconds later:  I'm going to answer my own question - karma will find a way to have us play Albany in the quarters and they will relish the fact that they can knock us out.

The question I have is, does this game mean everything, or does this game mean nothing.  We have no clue how 5, 6, and 7 are going to work out so this really means hosting Hartford in a semi or going to Hartford for a semi.

Edited 35 seconds later:  I'm going to answer my own question - karma will find a way to have us play Albany in the quarters and they will relish the fact that they can knock us out.

1. What we do know is we're not playing Bing in the quarters, so I figure right there we've got a 50% chance (**unless we play UA or beat UMBC tomorrow and play them, then see #2 below).

2. If we get through that one we all know it's impossible to beat a team 3 times** in a season, so doesn't matter where we play Hartford.

3. That said, count us as probable favorites to play UVM up north.

Quote from: OldSeawolf on March 02, 2020, 04:34:38 pm

Quote from: SaltySeawolf on March 02, 2020, 04:09:57 pm

The question I have is, does this game mean everything, or does this game mean nothing.  We have no clue how 5, 6, and 7 are going to work out so this really means hosting Hartford in a semi or going to Hartford for a semi.

Edited 35 seconds later:  I'm going to answer my own question - karma will find a way to have us play Albany in the quarters and they will relish the fact that they can knock us out.

Let's do the math.  Although possible, this is what would have to happen for us to play UA in the quarters (let's assume every game is a 50/50; that is, no home field or better team advantage);

- We would have to win vs UMBC OR Hartford would need to lose to Maine (3/4 chance that this will happen out of all possible outcomes);

- UNH would need to lose at home to UML (1/2 chance that this will happen);

- UA would need to win at UVM (1/2 chance that this will happen);

So, probability wise that would mean (3/4) * (1/2) * (1/2) = 3/16 = 18.75% chance of this occurring, and that ignores home field/better team advantages.  I conclude, not likely.

Hope I didn't scare anybody here.

There’s also the chance that we win, Lowell wins and UA loses. In that case, Lowell, UMBC and Albany are all 7-9, all 3-3 against each other, and Albany slides to 7 with no wins over the top three.

I think.


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Spot on, Checkmate, good catch.  So to complete the geeky math, that would increase the chance of a QF SBU/UA matchup, as follows (I think), since we would need to add the probability of a UMBC loss, UML win, and UA loss (1/8 chance of that happening), as an unrelated possible occurrence:

The revised probability would be [(3/4) * (1/2) * (1/2)] +  (1/8)  =  5/16   = 31.25%  (significant increase over 18.75%)

Probably easiest just to watch the games

How about we just run the table for the rest of the year and hold the trophy in April 

That would need a miracle to happen. Even if Olanyi returns for the Playoffs, he will not be 100% and a little rusty. This Basketball team clearly has no leadership and is lost without him. That all falls on the HC. Sorry, but I have my doubts about Geno Ford. His 4 years at Bradley is really starting to show now.

Elijah is a go tonight.


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Quote from: Checkmate on March 03, 2020, 01:51:18 pm

Elijah is a go tonight.


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 I wish him the very best of luck..

Stay safe, Elijah! Get some legs and lungs back and easy on the battering drives to the hoop. Better an improving Elijah for a playoff run rather than an all-costs attempt to win tonight for a 2 seed. Of course I'll take an improving Elijah with modest minutes tonight and a win, thank you.

8 for 12 from three, only up three


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