Author Topic: Game 30: at Albany, 2/29 7pm  (Read 730 times)

Checkmate

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Game 30: at Albany, 2/29 7pm
« on: February 28, 2020, 01:24:01 pm »
ALBANY (14-15, 7-7 America East)
Last Game: UMass Lowell 88, Albany 69 on 2/26/20
Last Game with SBU: Stony Brook 70, Albany 62 on 1/18/20; Olaniyi 20, Garcia 20; SBU shot 55% from the field; shot season-low 16 threes
Checkmate Unofficial Line: Stony Brook -3
NET Ranking: Stony Brook 183, Albany 273
KenPom Rating: Stony Brook 178, Albany 283
KenPom Prediction: Stony Brook 68, Albany 65
Listen/Watch:
TV: http://www.espn.com/watch?id=748c704a-7b8a-4f2c-8cc7-6f22c92b8d49
Notables:
6-1/175 sr G Ahmad Clark 16.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 4.0 apg, 1.4 spg, .808 FT%
6-3/190 so G Cameron Healy 14.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg, .351 3-pt FG%, .904 FT%
6-3/195 so G Antonio Rizzuto 7.6 ppg, 1.0 spg, .357 3-pt FG%
6-5/195 fr F Trey Hutcheson 7.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg, .340 3-pt FG%
6-6/200 so F Malachi de Sousa 6.4 ppg, 4.6 rpg

One of these teams' fanbases is going to be shocked beyond belief that their side prevailed. I mean, wouldn't you be?

We've been really bad, and that we're still sitting in second place at this juncture says nothing about where we are and more to the decline of Albany and Hartford. UA's been awful, losing their last three games by double digits, including a miserable 19-point defeat at the hands of Lowell on Wednesday. Before that, home losses to UNH and UMBC, who as a result have re-entered the discussion for a first-round home game.

We have the toughest finales – Albany going to UVM, us going to UMBC. So that puts extraordinary emphasis on this one.

In short, assuming Hartford beats Maine at home, the following would happen ...
2 wins: 2 seed
1 win: 3 seed
0 wins: 3 or 4 seed

It's my belief that UNH cannot overtake us as we would have all split with UA and UMBC, and our win over UVM would trump their best win. UMBC has the upper hand on us if we end up even, having beaten Vermont and swept the season series from Hartford. (thanks for the edit on UA, Old; pecking away too quickly)

Correct me if I'm wrong.

I was not impressed with Albany when they were here. They just really lacked the toughness that we're accustomed to, and Healy's taken a step back after his terrific freshman year. I have said plenty about how I'm not a fan of Clark's game. He's put 20 or more in four of UA's last five games, but it's taken him 90 shots over that span. Just too erratic for me.

It's been a while since we've encountered an Albany team that lacked physicality like this one. They've nearly been outrebounded in conference and in the season overall, which you never see, and are giving up nearly 70 points a game. It's just an atypical Will Brown team in my opinion. It's easy to forget that it's already been five years since UA's last tournament bid.

Without Elijah, this is a total toss-up. It may come down to whoever's perimeter shots are going down tomorrow night. Based on recent performance, I don't think anyone's terribly confident it'll be their team ... but somebody's gotta win it.

If Albany's getting points, I'd take them personally.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2020, 05:11:53 pm by Checkmate »
"Of all the money e'er I had, I spent it in good company." – The Clancy Brothers, "The Parting Glass"

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OldSeawolf

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Re: Game 30: at Albany, 2/29 7pm
« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2020, 02:40:29 pm »
Good analysis, Checkmate. One correction - we didn’t split with Hartford. Assuming UA beats us and UVM, I believe we still beat UA by virtue of us having swept UML and they having not (yes you have to look at common opponents all the way down to UML to see a differential). I think we’re guaranteed 4th before this game, and can finish 2nd, 3rd, or 4th, depending on outcomes.

Regardless, will be tough without Elijah. Maybe we’ll be pleasantly surprised by his presence tmrw night.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2020, 02:54:03 pm by OldSeawolf »
How old a Seawolf am I? I followed them during their Final 4 DIII hoops run in 1977-78 (they were called the Patriots then)

OldSeawolf

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Re: Game 30: at Albany, 2/29 7pm
« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2020, 02:52:00 pm »
I posted this last year, and am not positive on its accuracy since it’s 5 years old, but here’s a link to a blog post from UA that claims to have the tie-breaker rules:

http://bigpurplefans.ipbhost.com/topic/7879-ua-in-the-ae-standings-tie-breaker-info/
How old a Seawolf am I? I followed them during their Final 4 DIII hoops run in 1977-78 (they were called the Patriots then)

Moveitfred

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Re: Game 30: at Albany, 2/29 7pm
« Reply #3 on: February 28, 2020, 03:34:26 pm »
Some of you probably got the season seat holder email today that they are selling those seats for the first round game before available to all, so probably, yes, SBU sort of stepped backwards into at least the 4 spot with the loss this week (thanks to the other rivals also stumbling).

As always, great preview Checkmate.

Indeed, one fan base will probably be crying "now THIS is rock bottom!" after the game. 3 of 5 SBU AE losses have been at home, best AE win was on the road. Dare I say, maybe they play better on the road?

Checkmate

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Re: Game 30: at Albany, 2/29 7pm
« Reply #4 on: February 29, 2020, 02:33:21 pm »
Maine just pounding UMBC today. And an impressive showing by UNH too, which puts them in fourth ahead of Albany and UMBC for the time being.
"Of all the money e'er I had, I spent it in good company." – The Clancy Brothers, "The Parting Glass"

OldSeawolf

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Re: Game 30: at Albany, 2/29 7pm
« Reply #5 on: February 29, 2020, 02:35:29 pm »
I’m watching this Maine game. They look like the Lakers today. I believe we clinch the #3 seed with a UMBC loss.
How old a Seawolf am I? I followed them during their Final 4 DIII hoops run in 1977-78 (they were called the Patriots then)

OldSeawolf

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Re: Game 30: at Albany, 2/29 7pm
« Reply #6 on: February 29, 2020, 02:45:23 pm »
Also, on MBB twitter feed, Elijah in uniform at an Albany SEFCO practice. At least he’s practicing again. We’ll see if he plays.
How old a Seawolf am I? I followed them during their Final 4 DIII hoops run in 1977-78 (they were called the Patriots then)

VA_Seawolf

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Re: Game 30: at Albany, 2/29 7pm
« Reply #7 on: February 29, 2020, 06:18:43 pm »
As important as this game may be for seeding, I've got to be honest with you guys, I'm not very excited for it and probably won't watch given how we've been playing as of late. Just calling it like I see it. 

Moveitfred

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Re: Game 30: at Albany, 2/29 7pm
« Reply #8 on: February 29, 2020, 06:30:09 pm »
Some pre-game good news on the day: Bing will officially sit out the AE tournament this year.
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Hammertime

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Re: Game 30: at Albany, 2/29 7pm
« Reply #9 on: February 29, 2020, 06:50:03 pm »
Some pre-game good news on the day: Bing will officially sit out the AE tournament this year.

Does it really matter?? lol.

Seawolf97

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Re: Game 30: at Albany, 2/29 7pm
« Reply #10 on: February 29, 2020, 07:13:55 pm »
These guys never learn . 0-5   on the 3 ball and shooting under 20%   from the floor. Another SBU special in the making .

guest369

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Re: Game 30: at Albany, 2/29 7pm
« Reply #11 on: February 29, 2020, 07:33:44 pm »
Double-teaming Garcia in the paint really makes the ball movement ugly to watch. At least it’s an 8-pt lead.

Seawolf97

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Re: Game 30: at Albany, 2/29 7pm
« Reply #12 on: February 29, 2020, 07:48:43 pm »
Down by 1  at   the half . I guess it could be worse . Very lackluster game so far.

OldSeawolf

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Re: Game 30: at Albany, 2/29 7pm
« Reply #13 on: February 29, 2020, 07:50:07 pm »
To be losing at half after UA’s poor shooting is a real problem. No one is confident shooting. If I were Ford, I’d say no one shoots outside of 15’ from basket. Trouble with Garcia and Foreman with 2 fouls, not that Foreman is creating anything for his teammates.
How old a Seawolf am I? I followed them during their Final 4 DIII hoops run in 1977-78 (they were called the Patriots then)

Checkmate

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Re: Game 30: at Albany, 2/29 7pm
« Reply #14 on: February 29, 2020, 08:22:29 pm »
Some good ball movement here early in the second half. Nice finish by Gueye off glass, and Foreman passed up a tough three for a wide open two on the baseline. Keep it coming, guys.


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"Of all the money e'er I had, I spent it in good company." – The Clancy Brothers, "The Parting Glass"