ALBANY
Record: 9-17 (4-7 America East)
Last 10: 4-6
Last Game: Albany 63, Maine 54 on 2/17/19
Last Game with SBU: Stony Brook 67, Albany 66 (OT) on 1/23/19; trailed by as much as 8 in the second half; Yeboah game-high 21
Checkmate Unofficial Line: Stony Brook -8.5
Net Ranking: Stony Brook 151, Albany 283
KenPom RPI: Stony Brook 165, Albany 296
KenPom Prediction: Stony Brook 71, Albany 60
Yeboah Point Watch: 1,198
Division I: Currently 7th. Next up: Dave Coley (2010-14) 1,222
All-time: Currently 13th. Next up: Dave Coley (2010-14) 1,222
Listen/Watch:TV:
http://www.espn.com/watch/player?id=e917f315-4d17-4012-a93b-8c18611baa7bStony Brook radio:
http://bit.ly/WUSBSportsNotables:6-1/175 jr G Ahmad Clark 16.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 4.4 apg, 2.1 spg, .782 FT%
6-3/190 rfr G Cameron Healy 16.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg, .407 3-pt FG%, .912 FT%
6-8/245 rfr Adam Lulka 9.4 ppg, 7.0 rpg, .545 FG%
6-3/190 fr Antonio Rizzuto 8.6 ppg, .378 3-pt FG%
6-6/235 sr Devonte Campbell 6.8 ppg, 4.7 rpg
Big stretch here, with three home games over a seven-day span. When we're on the back end of it, we should have a good idea of where we're going to land in the top four.
We can't afford to eyeball next week's clash with UMBC, not with the Great Danes coming into town Thursday. They struggled to find their footing in the early going, but they've been better of late, and the scare up at UA should have been enough to get our attention for this one.
Don't feel too bad for Will Brown. I just get a sense that they're going to be very tough in the coming years, with freshmen taking their lumps this year only to use that experience to enjoy success in the next few. Healy's really taken a step forward as the team's go-to option offensively, averaging over 17 a night in conference to Clark's 13, and they've found a few other weapons among their first-year guys, including Lulka, Rizzuto, Brent Hank and Malachi De Sousa. I'm sure Brown will find some more workmanlike talent. This kid Hutcheson from Iowa looks like a kid I'm going to hate for the next four years.
With the hodge podge of talent, Albany's done well in the middle section of their conference schedule, winning four of their last six since suffering back to back OT losses to us and UMBC last month. I watched a little of the Albany/Maine game and liked how they were moving the ball on offense, and I feel that Brown has traditionally had his guys prepared to guard us well. In this recent group of games though are a couple real head scratchers, in particular a 32-point loss at home to Lowell. 32 points! What the heck happened? Well, one of the trademarks of a Will Brown team has been their ability to clean the glass. Well, it's been a down year in that category for UA, and Lowell exploited it, outrebounding Albany 45-23 and allowing UA to gather just four offensive rebounds. Vermont did the same the game earlier, also a rout.
Another staple has been getting the line over and over and over again. Check out these numbers ...
Free throw attempts2012-13: Albany 516-700, opponents 337-514
2013-14: Albany 546-728, opponents 388-537
2014-15: Albany 493-650, opponents 352-502
2015-16: Albany 611-814, opponents 349-516
2016-17: Albany 490-647, opponents 409-578
2017-18: Albany 513-680, opponents 353-503
2018-19: Albany 340-463, opponents 294-449This will be the first year since 2011-12 that Albany will finish at .500 or worse – they went 16-16 that season behind now associate head coach Jon Iati. That team didn't shoot free throws like all the teams in between now and then. I
hate when a team gets into the bonus with 14 minutes left and you suffer a death by a thousand nicks (and it didn't help when we threw up bricks). I mean, look at that outrageous 2015-16 comparison.
It's a big one for you scoreboard watchers. We'll have four games going on, including the big UVM @ UMBC tussle. Who do you root for? If UVM wins and we win, we're two full games up for the #2 spot. If UMBC wins and we win, we're in a first-place tie but UMBC lurks just a game back. I think I'd prefer UVM win just so we're that much closer to a second home game in the conference tournament, and either Binghamton or Maine in the first round rather than the threat of, I think, a bigger threat in Albany for a third time.
It's worth noting that KenPom has us as the seventh luckiest team in all of college basketball. For reference, luck is "the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method. The luck factor has nothing to do with the rating calculation, but a team that is very lucky (positive numbers) will tend to be rated lower by [Ken's] system than their record would suggest." I can't say I disagree. We've been very fortunate to pull out some of these games, particularly on the road, where we've had SIX wins by three points or less. That's all in the past. We have a few weeks to position ourselves for a postseason run, and it starts with this three-game homestand.
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