MARYLAND BALTIMORE COUNTY
Record: 15-8 (6-2 America East)
Last Game: W, 86-74, vs. Maine 1/27
Last 10: 7-3
Last Meeting: UMBC 65-52 on 2/22/17; Nyama team-high 22, team shot 29.6% from the field
CM Unofficial Line: pick 'em
KenPom RPI: Stony Brook 224, UMBC 201
KenPom Prediction: Stony Brook 69, UMBC 67
Listen/Watch:TV:
http://www.espn.com/watch/_/id/3245469/umbc-vs-stony-brook-m-basketballStony Brook radio:
http://www.943theshark.com/listenlive.aspxNotables:6-2/175 gs G Jairus Lyles 21.1 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 4.2 apg, 2.2 spg, .820 FT%, .427 3-pt FG%
6-5/225 so G Arkel Lamar 12.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.2 spg, .455 3-pt FG%
6-6/215 jr F Joe Sherburne 10.9 ppg, 3.0 rpg, .479 FG%, .455 3-pt FG%
5-8/140 sr G KJ Maura 10.0 ppg, 5.3 apg, 2.1 spg, .800 FT%, .438 3-pt FG%
6-2/190 sr G Jourdan Grant 7.5 ppg, 3.0 apg
6-8/205 fr F Daniel Akin 3.3 ppg, 2.6 ppg, .683 FG%
First off, there's a good chance that UMBC will be without Lamar, who's risen from a reserve to a key piece of UMBC's success. However, he hurt his ankle during or after the Albany game, and has missed the last two. I wouldn't mind if he took a few days to heal up.
We know all about the guards, who are at least in the discussion with TBH/Duncan and Nichols/Cremo for best backcourt in the conference. Lyles is capable of monster nights, like the 34-point effort he had on Saturday against Maine – which helped him secure AE Player of the Week honors. He's had four games over 30 this season, including a 31-point night at Arizona in November. I think it's one of those things where you're happy with him getting 20 but don't want him to have one of those outrageous nights. He can score anywhere from in close to downtown, and also, he's killed us from the line even if it hasn't yielded many wins. Maura is exactly what we need – a floor general who can shoot. They'll be on the floor for about 34 minutes apiece on Wednesday.
But they need a supporting cast. Akin has recently emerged as a force inside for UMBC, going for 9 points and a career-high 10 rebounds against Maine in a career-high 27 minutes. Pair that with his 8 and 8 night against Binghamton and he earned his first AE Rookie of the Week nod. Based on what I've seen, he isn't terribly gifted offensively but is an athlete and gives them good energy underneath. That's enough for me.
I thought we had a great first half defensively against Albany, and I won't even complain about the second half – Nichols got hot and we stopped scoring. We have to defend the three here. UMBC averages more than 28 three-point attempts a night, and rightfully so – they're making them at a 40 percent clip, so about 11 per game. Look at those numbers from their top four scorers – yikes. So, as you might have guessed, that's how UMBC lost
83-39 at Albany last week. They went 2 for 20 from three and got manhandled on the glass, 40-23. Get out and defend and we have a chance.
By the way, we beat UMBC 83-39 back in 2013, holding them to 10 second-half points and finishing on a 69-16 run. We were actually down 23-14 at one point in that game. Think about that.
If UMBC wins, it will be their first win at our place since 2008.