Author Topic: Game 23: vs. UMBC 1/31  (Read 337 times)

OldSeawolf

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 612
  • Location: Suffolk County, NY
    • View Profile
Re: Game 23: vs. UMBC 1/31
« Reply #30 on: February 01, 2018, 04:13:30 pm »
Here's a thought on 2nd half FT's:

Since it's literally a coin toss as to whether we make one or not at the line, on FT's how about the SBU players bang the ball hard off the rim on every FT attempt, with the intent of possibly getting a rebound off the clank, and try to get another shot attempt - let's be optimistic and assume that they will all be 2-point attempts off the rebound. 

So, here's some math to add some credence to this "OldSeawolf FT" strategy:

Let's assume we shoot 50% from the line down the stretch, and shoot 40% from inside the arc down the stretch - just to keep the math reasonably simple and realistic.

Trying to make 10 FT's down the stretch should yield 5 points, given the 50% FT shooting rate.  That becomes our expected baseline.

Now let's also assume for argument sake that 6 of these 10 FT's are 2-shot fouls (hence, 3 of those 6 will be in-play after the FT goes up), and the other 4 are 1-and-1.  That would mean that for these expected 10 FT's, we have 7 FT attempts that are in-play on a miss.  Everyone still with me here?

Further, let's assume that of the 7 FT attempts that are in-play, we clank the ball off the rim, and through judicious planning and rim angle geometry, we are able to snare 5 of those 7 on rebounds.  We wind up taking 5 extra shots, a potential of 10 points, and at a 40% make rate, our expected # of points off these missed FT rebounds becomes 10 x 0.40 = 4 points.  Add to that the expected 1.5 points that are expected from the 3 FT's that are not in play (dead ball FT's), and this strategy yields an expected total of 5.5 points; an entire 1/2 point more than just taking FT's and trying to hit them - a whopping 10% increase in point production on FT's down-the-stretch.  Let's round up that extra 1/2 point to 1 point, and we just beat UML, and avoided OT.  Pure genius!

I think I'm onto something here that is more powerful than meets the eye.  This may become the future of SBU basketball, and may catch on around the NCAA.  The entire key to success for this strategy is mastering the clank and understanding rim geometry.  We may want to base all of our future recruiting on kids that "know how to miss FT's".
How old a Seawolf am I? I followed them during their Final 4 DIII hoops run in 1977-78 (they were called the Patriots then)