Author Topic: Game 23: vs. UMBC 1/31  (Read 329 times)

Chairman of the Board

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Re: Game 23: vs. UMBC 1/31
« Reply #30 on: February 01, 2018, 11:00:48 am »
yeah i wasnt sure if those stats were cumulative or not- thanks for the correction.  still a bad story either way!

so for our big, out of 6 shots, all taken from three.  nearly all missed.  including the last one.

its implied below but what is the benefit here- no inside presence, no boards, no scoring, no outside shooting- all turnovers. 
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Moveitfred

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Re: Game 23: vs. UMBC 1/31
« Reply #31 on: February 01, 2018, 11:18:29 am »
those teams rebound.  those teams have their big (multiple) in the paint, playing physical, and taking boards.  those teams win.  we lost to UML.  gimme some stats on where a three pointer got us a win that propelled us into something other than the CBI or AE tourney.

Yes, exactly. Interesting to see the numbers as, obviously, this is the culture of the game. And while SBU's threes seem horrific and untimely, statistically they're not too far off what the whole gang is up to these days. But there are certainly a lot of other moving and supporting parts to the game not going well for SBU right now that make cranking up so many threes a questionable approach.


Moveitfred

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Re: Game 23: vs. UMBC 1/31
« Reply #32 on: February 01, 2018, 11:25:45 am »

Just a heads up, Ty took five shots total, all from three. Zero shots inside the arc. Ty's last-second chuck was the result of there being no Plan B when Plan A to get it to Yeboah on the block was denied. Just horrible.

And of Lyles' 21 shots, he was 9 for 15 from two, 1 for 6 from three.

That last play out of a timeout really was a horrible palm-to-forehead moment (especially added to the other recent games with essentially the same event and outcome). Not only was the best guess that the ball would go to Yeboah on the block, but to have what appeared to be the other four players just standing there and staring at Yeboah with seemingly no other option discussed was...ugh, just really had me wondering if this stuff is even practiced, or the SBU players just can't remember, or if its a youth/poise factor?

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Re: Game 23: vs. UMBC 1/31
« Reply #33 on: February 01, 2018, 11:41:54 am »
why move, when the guy with the ball is just going to shoot?  :D
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Moveitfred

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Re: Game 23: vs. UMBC 1/31
« Reply #34 on: February 01, 2018, 11:49:29 am »
why move, when the guy with the ball is just going to shoot?  :D

When the ref was handing over the ball to be in-bounded my friend whispered, "This is when SBU throws the ball to the other team."

Well...at least they did get a shot off this game!

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Re: Game 23: vs. UMBC 1/31
« Reply #35 on: February 01, 2018, 12:08:58 pm »
sigh.

i know rebounding is an unsexy job.  and baby hooks and layups are the same. 

if we cant do that- how about passing?  anyone see BC flick the ball around against our 23 zone???
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Checkmate

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Re: Game 23: vs. UMBC 1/31
« Reply #36 on: February 01, 2018, 12:44:53 pm »
The most stark difference between us and UMBC was the ball movement. Did you see the way they swung the ball around? Because we were stuck were stuck in molasses, we were actually lucky to be in it late because they had a million open wide-open looks from three but they didn't go down. Maura and Lyles could do whatever they want and go wherever they wanted to. We just don't have those guys.

We are now shooting a league-worst 57.6% from the free throw line. Fewest makes, third-fewest attempts. Just some killer misses from UC when were trying to go in front. 42-42, missed two. Down 58-56, missed two. We were 3 for 10 on free throws in the second half.

But but but wait it gets worse! If I did the math right ...

Conference totals first half
3-pointers: 39 for 104 (.375)
Free throws: 42 for 64 (.657)

Conference totals second half
3-pointers: 27 for 107 (.252)
Free throws: 39 for 77 (.507)

Those are some big-time bricks being thrown up with the game on the line! I'd love to know what our second half FT totals when we're up/down two points or tied.

Mac played some good minutes. I could see Maura picking his pocket from a mile away, and he should have turned it over underneath another time but instead made a short jumper. A step forward for him though.

Same for Ochefu. But I'm sure, for no reason imaginable, he won't get off the bench for the next few games.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2018, 12:52:35 pm by Checkmate »
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Hammertime

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Re: Game 23: vs. UMBC 1/31
« Reply #37 on: February 01, 2018, 02:45:41 pm »
The most stark difference between us and UMBC was the ball movement. Did you see the way they swung the ball around? Because we were stuck were stuck in molasses, we were actually lucky to be in it late because they had a million open wide-open looks from three but they didn't go down. Maura and Lyles could do whatever they want and go wherever they wanted to. We just don't have those guys.

We are now shooting a league-worst 57.6% from the free throw line. Fewest makes, third-fewest attempts. Just some killer misses from UC when were trying to go in front. 42-42, missed two. Down 58-56, missed two. We were 3 for 10 on free throws in the second half.

But but but wait it gets worse! If I did the math right ...

Conference totals first half
3-pointers: 39 for 104 (.375)
Free throws: 42 for 64 (.657)

Conference totals second half
3-pointers: 27 for 107 (.252)
Free throws: 39 for 77 (.507)

Those are some big-time bricks being thrown up with the game on the line! I'd love to know what our second half FT totals when we're up/down two points or tied.

Mac played some good minutes. I could see Maura picking his pocket from a mile away, and he should have turned it over underneath another time but instead made a short jumper. A step forward for him though.

Same for Ochefu. But I'm sure, for no reason imaginable, he won't get off the bench for the next few games.

Word!! I could not have put it any better.

Hammertime

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Re: Game 23: vs. UMBC 1/31
« Reply #38 on: February 01, 2018, 02:50:24 pm »
sigh.

i know rebounding is an unsexy job.  and baby hooks and layups are the same. 

if we cant do that- how about passing?  anyone see BC flick the ball around against our 23 zone???

I was discussing this same exact thing with my buddy at the game yesterday. The ball distribution by UMBC was beautiful. SB was totally off kilter with that..

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Re: Game 23: vs. UMBC 1/31
« Reply #39 on: February 01, 2018, 03:04:31 pm »
we need more passing and less black holes.  share the ball and our shot selection will improve, along with our %.  we need to be a pass first shoot second team. 

staying the course is a recipe for a first round exit.  we've been abysmal in nine conference games; why should i think round 1 at Patrick will be any different.
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OldSeawolf

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Re: Game 23: vs. UMBC 1/31
« Reply #40 on: February 01, 2018, 04:13:30 pm »
Here's a thought on 2nd half FT's:

Since it's literally a coin toss as to whether we make one or not at the line, on FT's how about the SBU players bang the ball hard off the rim on every FT attempt, with the intent of possibly getting a rebound off the clank, and try to get another shot attempt - let's be optimistic and assume that they will all be 2-point attempts off the rebound. 

So, here's some math to add some credence to this "OldSeawolf FT" strategy:

Let's assume we shoot 50% from the line down the stretch, and shoot 40% from inside the arc down the stretch - just to keep the math reasonably simple and realistic.

Trying to make 10 FT's down the stretch should yield 5 points, given the 50% FT shooting rate.  That becomes our expected baseline.

Now let's also assume for argument sake that 6 of these 10 FT's are 2-shot fouls (hence, 3 of those 6 will be in-play after the FT goes up), and the other 4 are 1-and-1.  That would mean that for these expected 10 FT's, we have 7 FT attempts that are in-play on a miss.  Everyone still with me here?

Further, let's assume that of the 7 FT attempts that are in-play, we clank the ball off the rim, and through judicious planning and rim angle geometry, we are able to snare 5 of those 7 on rebounds.  We wind up taking 5 extra shots, a potential of 10 points, and at a 40% make rate, our expected # of points off these missed FT rebounds becomes 10 x 0.40 = 4 points.  Add to that the expected 1.5 points that are expected from the 3 FT's that are not in play (dead ball FT's), and this strategy yields an expected total of 5.5 points; an entire 1/2 point more than just taking FT's and trying to hit them - a whopping 10% increase in point production on FT's down-the-stretch.  Let's round up that extra 1/2 point to 1 point, and we just beat UML, and avoided OT.  Pure genius!

I think I'm onto something here that is more powerful than meets the eye.  This may become the future of SBU basketball, and may catch on around the NCAA.  The entire key to success for this strategy is mastering the clank and understanding rim geometry.  We may want to base all of our future recruiting on kids that "know how to miss FT's".
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avmsbu

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Re: Game 23: vs. UMBC 1/31
« Reply #41 on: February 01, 2018, 06:42:23 pm »
Very creative solution, OldSeawolf, although i can't help but think making free throws is the more efficient approach.

Seawolf97

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Re: Game 23: vs. UMBC 1/31
« Reply #42 on: February 01, 2018, 07:37:48 pm »
Just food for thought .  I watched  Ochefu at the beginning of the second half in warmups last night . He sank 3 3s  from way downtown  with nothing but net.  3 in a row with nothing but net something Warney could never do .  Yet he tippy taps a layup for two . I mean this guy needs a confidence class . That's 9 points he swished without even a blink . Imagine a future with a 6'8 kid shooting 3s or controlling the boards all at one game .