Author Topic: Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm  (Read 1583 times)

Checkmate

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Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm
« on: January 05, 2020, 08:46:50 pm »
VERMONT (10-5, 0-0 America East)
Last Game: Vermont 77, Dartmouth 68 on 1/2/20
Last Game with SBU: Vermont 56, Stony Brook 50 on 3/2/19; SBU 7 for 29 from three; Lamb 14, Yeboah 11
Checkmate Unofficial Line: Vermont -6
NET Ranking: TBD
KenPom Rating: Stony Brook 140, Vermont 77
KenPom Prediction: Vermont 70, Stony Brook 61
Olaniyi 1,000 Point Watch: 924
Listen/Watch:
TV: https://www.espn.com/watch/search/vermont
Radio: https://uvmathletics.com/watch/?Live=289&type=Live
Notables:
6-6/225 sr F Anthony Lamb 17.1 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 1.5 bpg
6-2/185 jr G Stef Smith 14.7 ppg, 1.3 spg, .406 3-pt FG%
6-6/190 rsr G Everett Duncan 8.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg, .905 FT%
6-8/250 so F Ryan Davis 8.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg, .506 FG%, .857 FT%, .355 3-pt FG%
6-2/200 rjr G Ben Shungu 7.4 ppg, 6.0 rpg

Game of the Year, part one. Let's dive in.

One very noticeable difference between this year's Vermont team and past versions – these guys have not shot it like their predecessors. Take a look at this. I probably could have gone back much further.

14-15: .471 FG%/.355 3-pt FG%
15-16: .481/.383
16-17: .494/.369
17-18: .488/.401
18-19: .458/.359
19-20: .424/.298

They've had sharpshooters for years – McGlynn, Steidl, Ward, Ernie Duncan. But ... this group has struggled at times. Lamb has drifted outside but not hit with regularity. It's really been just Smith from deep with a little of Davis. Other than that, everybody's under 30 percent. Of course, anybody can catch fire in one game – you'll remember Everett Duncan lit us up in our gym last year – but they haven't been on to this point. Lamb (.365 last year, .231 this year) and Duncan (.367 last year, .290 this year) feel due. That said, we have the athletes to stay with their shooters, but because Lamb's kind of a tweener matchup for Olaniyi/Garcia, because have rim protection and because UVM hasn't been as sharp from deep, I do wonder if we do go zone. We stuck around with Virginia doing that.

Might they try to pound it inside instead? The transfer Giddens isn't really a scorer, but Lamb is obviously a concern and Davis is capable. Still, I just don't think that's this team's game. In the past, at their best, 30-35 percent of their shots came from three. This year? 43 percent. And they lack shooters. So what gives?

Another of Vermont's biggest advantages in past years also hasn't been there – the free throw line. Let's take at made free throws during that same stretch of time.

14-15: UVM 14.6/opp 14.6
15-16: UVM 14.8/opp 14.8
16-17: UVM 13.0/opp 10.0
17-18: UVM 16.3/opp 9.7
18-19: UVM 14.9/opp 10.8
19-20: UVM 12.0/opp 12.0

During the 17-18 season, they took 277 more free throws than their opponents, or about 8 more per game. TBH, Henson, Urquhart, Lamb when healthy – they wore out a path to the line. Part of that is winning; you're up, you get fouled, you take free throws. But this was different. They took 32, 30 and 37 free throws in the three games against us that year. And then last year: 30 attempts in the rout here, just 15 when we kept it close up there. That all adds up. And looking at this year, we have been disciplined, giving up just 10 free throws a night, and I don't think they have the guards or the force inside of years past.

We should keep an eye on the injury report. Shungu missed the start of the season with a hamstring injury and then the last few he reaggravated it. And while he hasn't been an impact guy in our past matchups, he proved to be an important piece for UVM in the games he did play. He's thick so at just 6-2/200 he was second behind Lamb on the glass before getting hurt. He's been considered day-to-day but maybe he'll be healthy enough for their conference opener. Again, not a big-time scorer though.

Guys, I know it's Vermont, I know it's at their place, but I think we win this game. We have guys who can comfortably switch on D, even Gueye, and we can defend from baseline to baseline if need be. As I've said in many prior previews, teams are going to have to shoot it well against us. And offensively, we have multiple guys who can both attack the rim and keep the D honest by knocking down threes. We didn't have that even in the Warney years.

Fired up for this one. I have faith that we can pull it out.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2020, 08:48:30 pm by Checkmate »
"Of all the money e'er I had, I spent it in good company." – The Clancy Brothers, "The Parting Glass"

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guest369

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Re: Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm
« Reply #1 on: January 05, 2020, 09:28:48 pm »
Anthony Lamb's struggles have really gone under the radar. 23% from three! 38% shooting! He's been horribly inefficient this year. He's still scoring decently because he takes so many shots (second most in the conference). He's supposed to be their key threat but if we double him, then what? Stef Smith has been their best shooter this year.

VA_Seawolf

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Re: Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm
« Reply #2 on: January 05, 2020, 11:41:22 pm »
Excellent analysis as usual Checkmate. I'm not as optimistic as you are, but I like the way you think. As long as it's competitive I'll be ok with the outcome. As long as we beat them in March.
Anthony Lamb's struggles have really gone under the radar. 23% from three! 38% shooting! He's been horribly inefficient this year. He's still scoring decently because he takes so many shots (second most in the conference). He's supposed to be their key threat but if we double him, then what? Stef Smith has been their best shooter this year.

Should have gone to the NBA!!

Hammertime

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Re: Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm
« Reply #3 on: January 06, 2020, 06:34:30 am »
Excellent analysis as usual Checkmate. I'm not as optimistic as you are, but I like the way you think. As long as it's competitive I'll be ok with the outcome. As long as we beat them in March.
Anthony Lamb's struggles have really gone under the radar. 23% from three! 38% shooting! He's been horribly inefficient this year. He's still scoring decently because he takes so many shots (second most in the conference). He's supposed to be their key threat but if we double him, then what? Stef Smith has been their best shooter this year.

Should have gone to the NBA!!

Lamb didnt go to the NBA because he wasnt getting any interest from teams and new he would not have been drafted. Smart move to finish up on his education and then try again. Chances are, Lamb will follow the same path as Warney. G league for a couple of years and will play in the European or Asain basketball league.

ry1nik

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Re: Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm
« Reply #4 on: January 06, 2020, 08:03:24 am »
Excellent analysis as usual Checkmate. I'm not as optimistic as you are, but I like the way you think. As long as it's competitive I'll be ok with the outcome. As long as we beat them in March.
Anthony Lamb's struggles have really gone under the radar. 23% from three! 38% shooting! He's been horribly inefficient this year. He's still scoring decently because he takes so many shots (second most in the conference). He's supposed to be their key threat but if we double him, then what? Stef Smith has been their best shooter this year.

Should have gone to the NBA!!

Lamb didnt go to the NBA because he wasnt getting any interest from teams and new he would not have been drafted. Smart move to finish up on his education and then try again. Chances are, Lamb will follow the same path as Warney. G league for a couple of years and will play in the European or Asain basketball league.
Agee with Hammer. The last player in the NBA of any note with Lamb’s size and skill set was Dan Majerle, and that was back in the 90s. There are too many taller players now who can shoot threes. I don’t know if Lamb will make it even in the G league.

OldSeawolf

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Re: Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm
« Reply #5 on: January 06, 2020, 10:17:02 am »
I think if Lamb had any chance at NBA, this past year was the year, since draft class was pretty weak, especially in 2nd round.  Draft class will be stronger this year.  He may get a quick look as a free agent, but agree with others, G League or overseas (probably the latter) is where he'll wind up.  Getting degree is certainly a longer-term plus for him.

It's early still, but his #'s may be down, because he's trying to do it all (inside and out), with the loss of Ernie.  I think VT is weaker this year than last, and we're about even, with 1 year more experience, and the Mo for Akwasi trade-off.  We certainly have the capability to win on Wed night; it remains to be seen if we can win at Patrick.  Glad to see we TCB yesterday - Maine is pretty poor team though; that was rough to watch.
How old a Seawolf am I? I followed them during their Final 4 DIII hoops run in 1977-78 (they were called the Patriots then)

Checkmate

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Re: Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm
« Reply #6 on: January 06, 2020, 10:49:42 am »
I think if Lamb had any chance at NBA, this past year was the year, since draft class was pretty weak, especially in 2nd round.  Draft class will be stronger this year.  He may get a quick look as a free agent, but agree with others, G League or overseas (probably the latter) is where he'll wind up.  Getting degree is certainly a longer-term plus for him.

It's early still, but his #'s may be down, because he's trying to do it all (inside and out), with the loss of Ernie.  I think VT is weaker this year than last, and we're about even, with 1 year more experience, and the Mo for Akwasi trade-off.  We certainly have the capability to win on Wed night; it remains to be seen if we can win at Patrick.  Glad to see we TCB yesterday - Maine is pretty poor team though; that was rough to watch.

And Makale. I think he's been just a huge addition. As far as high-volume, high-efficiency shooters goes, he's right there with Dougher in the discussion for the best we've had at the D-I level. Am I overstating? Maybe I am. Dougher's been gone a while.
"Of all the money e'er I had, I spent it in good company." – The Clancy Brothers, "The Parting Glass"

Chairman of the Board

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Re: Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm
« Reply #7 on: January 06, 2020, 02:28:31 pm »
im actually pulling for lamb- more AE alums in the professional ranks is good for the conference. 
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OldSeawolf

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Re: Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm
« Reply #8 on: January 06, 2020, 06:27:07 pm »
Checkmate, my bad for not mentioning Makale. Although Cornish improved a lot from Jr->Sr year, Makale definitely an upgrade over Cornish, particularly in the scoring arena. I personally think Makale is a notch above Dougher, and maybe a wash when it comes to Carson, who was more of a slasher. Not sure how far u go back with SBU D1, but DJ Munir was a star for us, especially the year we won 19 or 20 games with him at the point, as an early D1 Independent team. I think he averaged about 17 ppg, and to me he’s our Best D1 point guard to date. Makale has the potential to be better. All imo, of course.

P.S. Hate to be dating myself here, but Larry Tillery (R.I.P.) was our PG the year we went Final 4 in DIII days in 1977-1978. He was an exciting player, was definitely D1 caliber imo, and deserves honorable mention in SBU PG lore.
« Last Edit: January 06, 2020, 06:34:42 pm by OldSeawolf »
How old a Seawolf am I? I followed them during their Final 4 DIII hoops run in 1977-78 (they were called the Patriots then)

Chairman of the Board

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Re: Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm
« Reply #9 on: January 06, 2020, 08:11:02 pm »
spot on- would add el amin too.
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OldSeawolf

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Re: Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm
« Reply #10 on: January 06, 2020, 08:18:49 pm »
Good catch, CoB, definitely agree.
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Seawolf97

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Re: Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm
« Reply #11 on: January 06, 2020, 09:06:50 pm »
Interesting talk about our players.  I listened to the game Sunday via the Maine Broadcast team  on their local  radio station ,  The coach prior to tip off said we have talent of a strong A10 team and thats  the feeling of several AE coaches. We are big , athletic and have a good basketball IQ  team wide.  Thats from the Maine coach  so that is encouraging and puts  maybe on equal footing with Vermont  .

Checkmate

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Re: Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm
« Reply #12 on: January 07, 2020, 07:41:02 pm »
Line matches up with KenPom. Catamounts -9. They may win, but I do not think they are double digits better than us.


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"Of all the money e'er I had, I spent it in good company." – The Clancy Brothers, "The Parting Glass"

SaltySeawolf

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Re: Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm
« Reply #13 on: January 07, 2020, 10:06:54 pm »
Pikiell and Rutgers beat ranked Pat Chambers and Penn St.  Definite foreshadowing of things to come tomorrow.
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Checkmate

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Re: Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm
« Reply #14 on: January 08, 2020, 12:00:19 pm »
UVM will get "limited minutes" out of Shungu tonight. I'm curious how healthy the hammy really is. Better than nothing though.
"Of all the money e'er I had, I spent it in good company." – The Clancy Brothers, "The Parting Glass"