FLORIDA (20-14, 9-9 Southeastern in 2021-22)Last Game vs SBU: Florida 87, Stony Brook 62 on 12/22/21; Sayles team-high 16 points; outrebounded 40-21
Checkmate Unofficial Line: Florida -23.5
NET Ranking: TBD
KenPom Rating: Stony Brook 285, Florida 35
KenPom Prediction: Florida 84, Stony Brook 61 (nailed the spread!)
Watch: https://www.espn.com/espnplus/player/_/id/f532b49f-8b57-418d-9730-06d8e6014ed2Listen: https://www.wruf.com/listen-live/Notables (2021-22 stats):6-11/250 rsr F Colin Castleton 16.2 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 2.2 bpg, .546 FG%
6-0/170 jr G Trey Bonham 13.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 4.0 apg, 1.3 spg, .478 FG%, .348 3-pt FG%, .826 FT% (at VMI)
6-3/185 gr G Kyle Lofton 12.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 5.9 apg, 2.0 spg, .820 FT% (at St. Bonaventure)
6-4/205 so G Will Richard 12.1 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.2 spg, .468 FG%, .804 FT% (at Belmont)
6-3/175 gr G Myreon Jones 8.5 ppg, 1.3 spg
Here we are, gents, less than a week away from the opening tip to the 2022-23 season. I don't know about you but I feel as uncertain about this year's team as any team before it, but hopefully it comes together. At the very least, it's a new frontier and I'm happy to be here.
Lots of questions, so we'll start with that.
1. Same every year: who's the guy? Last year, we had a few choices. This year, do we have any? My guess: TSM.
2. Is Policelli ready to do more? He's been a solid spot-up shooter and undersized center, but can he create? Can he be a night-in-and-night-out 15 point guy?
3. Do we have a 30-35 minute ballhandler ready on day one? Does TSM do it with Clarke out, or are Roberts or Onyekonwu ready for prime time? With all of our height, this is the wrong year for injuries to the backcourt.
4. Can our point guards actually distribute?
5. Do we have an actual offense, and if we do, can we in fact knock down shots as has been advertised?
6. Coming from a power conference, can Fitzmorris demonstrate that he is a bonafide big fish in a small pond?
7. Will Geno ever play Fitz, Muratori, Nahar and Sarvan all at once?
8. How well can we guard on the perimeter and in transition with a glut of big men? This is a big one, maybe the biggest of all.
9. Will the move to the CAA move the needle whatsoever in terms of attendance?
I'm really interested to see what we get out of TSM and Policelli. They're the elder statesmen at least on the roster, and each has shown flashes of being a force in the past. However, this is the CAA, not the America East. They are unmistakably expected to take on more, and the opposition knows that too. Is it like when a team's #1 wide receiver gets hurt and suddenly the solid #2 looks overmatched when covered by the opposition's top corner? For me, I'm really hoping that TSM, undoubtedly with regular minutes after taxiing from the starting five to the bench and back for a few years, it's now time for him to shine. I think he has the tools to do so—maybe the prettiest jump shot that I've seen since going to SBU games (not as long as some of you), the ability to put it on the floor and create, great athleticism, and on the other end, I think he gets after it enough.
Policelli? I need to see if he's a scorer and not just a shooter. I feel like we've been waiting for it, all because he had that third star, and he's been OK but not a dominant force.
We're coming in with a team that, particularly with the injuries, needs to walk the walk here. TSM and Policelli—nice players to this point—combined for two points in our game against Florida last year and have never been
the guy like they might have to be now. I'd point to Noll and Clarke as stabilizing forces, but we won't have their services, nor Philip. Sarvan is undoubtedly our most proven commodity outside of that. But then Roberts has 14 career points. Fitzmorris has six. With the injuries, Nahar, Muratori, the freshmen, they are being thrown into it.
And Florida is a really tough first matchup. They've customarily been very very stingy defensively, and even with the regime change—Todd Golden coming over from San Francisco—there's still so much proven talent and athleticism. I wish we had Miami Christian in an exhibition, then Florida, rather than Florida and an actual game against them. But here we are, wading into the swamp and, let's face it, we're fresh meat for the Gators.
For Florida, it starts with Castleton, who I think 10 or 20 years ago would have jumped to the NBA without question, but in the day and age where there is very little demand for 6-11 guys who can't shoot in the NBA, he came back for his fifth season. He almost singlehandedly has Florida in contention for a tournament berth. If you watched him last year, it really was a men amongst boys, and I suspect we'll have a similar feeling, oh, about two minutes into this year's game. Just an array of post moves, gets to the line, gets second-chance points, blocks shots, changes shots – a huge asset to any college program. You see a few guys like him around the country – Tshiebwe from Kentucky, Timme from Gonzaga, Bacot from North Carolina, all standouts in college but with a skillset that does not guarantee stardom in the NBA. The aforementioned three were rightfully named first team All-Americans in the preseason, but they're fringe pros just because of how the game's played.
As I said, they brought in Golden, who took over Mike White, who bolted from Gainesville to Georgia. That Castleton stayed is a huge coup for Golden, and he has some complementary pieces who know the terrain too. But let's talk about these transfers. Lofton is going to have zero issue transitioning from St. Bonaventure, where he scored 1600 points over four seasons (COVID included). He's twice been named to the All A-10 first team, and although he isn't this cold-blooded scorer with a dead-eye three-ball, he found those shooters over and over again at Bona. Whether Florida has those marksmen remains to be seen; last year, they didn't, ranking 321st out of 350 teams in three-point FG% at just over 30 percent. But these days, the roster's different, the coach is different, maybe they light it up!
Lofton's just the start of it. Richard was an all-conference player at Belmont as a freshman. Trey Bonham averaged 14 a night at VMI before transferring in. Alex Fudge is a four-star recruit who saw solid minutes at LSU as a freshman; he's describe as "ultra-athletic." Riley Kugel—four-star recruit. And then there's the holdovers! And I just don't know that we have any of that to be honest. Any of it. So what's that add up to? Trouble. It's a bunch of seasoned athletes against a team of unprovens just getting to know each other. It's just a really tough matchup for us, exacerbated by the losses of Noll and Clarke. We've had teams that hung around with high major teams and even won (see Washington and South Carolina). I can't see it this time though. All I can hope for is that we compete, we see some strides from the incumbents and we see some positive signs from the newcomers.
Either way, it's go time, and I'm pumped up about it.
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