Not sure about this, but is SBU locked in at #3 now? If they lose and UNH wins last game that leaves them tied, but does SBU have the tiebreak for beating UA?
Assuming so and assuming the top 4 win the first round, that puts SBU at UVM and UNH at UA. In a perfect Seawolves World SBU FINALLY wins at UVM and UNH upsets UA.
Pretty hard to find an AE tournament in recent memory where there were not significant upset wins by lower seeds.