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Messages - Checkmate

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1096
SBU Men's Basketball / Re: 2019-20 Men's AEHoops Honors
« on: March 06, 2020, 09:34:12 pm »
https://americaeast.com/news/2020/3/6/2020-mbbawards.aspx

Congrats to Olaniyi, Garcia, and Otchere.  A little surprised that Foreman didn't get 3rd team.

Some other surprises (to me):

- Noel making first team, ahead of Lutete;

- Fleming and Sutherlin making 3rd team;

- Shungu ONLY making Defensive player of year, and not making any of the all-teams;

I love that Noel got it over Lutete. He was so good against us. I'll bet his defense gave him the slightest edge. No way you could put two Lowell guys up there either.

Biggest snub for me is Gueye not getting any defensive recognition. He had at least twice as many blocks as all but like four players in the conference. He deserved to be up there, even if it meant replacing Otchere.

Foreman's the only player in the top 12 in scoring not to make a team. Eighth in scoring, third in three-point shooting. I can't think of anyone else in the league who should feel like a bigger snub for all-conference honors – and I don't necessarily believe he was snubbed. I wonder if his antics worked against him.

1097
SBU Men's Basketball / Game 32: AE quarters vs. Albany, 3/7 7pm
« on: March 06, 2020, 12:15:23 am »
ALBANY (14-17, 7-9 America East)
Last 10: 3-7
Last Game: Vermont 85, Albany 62 on 3/3/20
Last Game with SBU: Stony Brook 52, Albany 49 on 2/29/20; teams combined 11-43 from three; Foreman team-high 16
Checkmate Unofficial Line: Stony Brook -6.5
NET Ranking: Stony Brook 185, Albany 271
KenPom Rating: Stony Brook 184, Albany 283
KenPom Prediction: Stony Brook 71, Albany 61
Listen/Watch:
TV: TBA
Radio: TBA
Notables:
6-1/175 sr G Ahmad Clark 16.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 4.0 apg, 1.5 spg, .811 FT%
6-3/190 so G Cameron Healy 13.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg, .344 3-pt FG%, .906 FT%
6-3/195 so G Antonio Rizzuto 7.6 ppg, 1.0 spg, .354 3-pt FG%
6-5/195 fr F Trey Hutcheson 6.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg
6-6/200 so F Malachi de Sousa 6.1 ppg, 4.4 rpg

OK, boys, buckle up. Here's hoping we have three good ones in us over the next week.

The last time these two teams played, they combined for the fewest points in a SBU game since ... the Peter Hooley game. 51-50 Albany. You may remember it. We hadn't won a game with so few points since New Year's Day 2013, a 50-44 thriller at Manhattan.

Let's drop in some trivia real quick: Albany was -0.1 in the rebounding column this year. When was the last time Albany had a negative rebounding margin for a season? Answer below.

One wild card in this thing is senior Romani Hansen, who wasn't much of a factor for the first two-thirds of the season but has really come on. He's been regularly in the high 20s in minutes of late, dropping in a season-high 18 points on 7-of-9 shooting against us. I'll remind you they scored 49 points as a team. He's got good length, good energy and can knock down the three ball.

I think player for player we have a noticeable edge on UA. We've defended them really well in our series this year. But I still worry about the lights-out game from Healy, Rizzuto or both. Healy in particular has had a difficult sophomore season. He seemed to be the next great shooter in the conference, assuming the spot left by Ernie Duncan, but just hasn't been the same player, fending off a hip and back injury late in the season. He's shot more than 7% worse from 3-point land (.416 to .344) and Brown now has him coming off the bench. Healy hasn't reached double digits in the last seven contests, and it's no coincidence that UA is 1-6 in those games.

He showed he could really really shoot it last year, and has had his moments, namely the 41-point night against Lowell in January where he hit eight threes. We've defended him well, but I'm always worried about an unconscious shooting night. Sessoms, Stewart and Show lit us up in last year's quarters. I'm hoping we can keep UA's shooters at bay. They haven't been good – just .324 as a team, their fourth worst proficiency from deep since 2002 – but you never know.

Make Clark beat you and I'll take our chances. Just too many bad shots and too many turnovers for my liking.

Trivia answer: Tricked you! It was last year. But before that ... the 2003-04 season. Fifteen years of winning the battle of the boards.

Olaniyi's been such a force for us offensively that you forget what he does us on the defensive end. He's yet another athlete who can shadow the ballhandler, get on the boards and handle the ball. I suspect we'll see Latimer-Clark III on Saturday. Olaniyi's effective straight up and on switches – such an asset. Here's hoping his ankle is near 100%.

Let's get four guys in double figures tomorrow – Olaniyi, Foreman, Garcia and a fourth.

I'm confident that we'll emerge with a win, but I wish I was more so. Last year's loss was just so devastating and we've also had desert droughts on the offensive end before. On top of that UA has given us fits before – pushing us around, getting to the line, locking us up defensively. But I dunno ... this just isn't your typical Will Brown team. I think we find a way, and then we're back here on Tuesday night.

1098
SBU Men's Basketball / OT: SBU women in the AE Tournament
« on: March 04, 2020, 07:29:29 pm »
Let’s go, Shewolves. Shooting 24 percent and only down three at the half.

Anyone know what Pagan’s status is?


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1099
SBU Men's Basketball / Re: Game 31: at UMBC, 3/3 7pm
« on: March 03, 2020, 08:29:56 pm »
I’d love to know why the pick and roll just isn’t a consideration offensively. Gueye would seem like the perfect dive guy.


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1100
SBU Men's Basketball / Re: Game 31: at UMBC, 3/3 7pm
« on: March 03, 2020, 08:28:21 pm »
It would be typical of this season if our competition stumbled and we managed to stay in the #2 spot. Maine looking good. Larsson lighting up the night.


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1101
SBU Men's Basketball / Re: Game 31: at UMBC, 3/3 7pm
« on: March 03, 2020, 07:53:49 pm »
At some point, somebody is going to jump our entry pass to the high post, or leave the cutting guard and pick our guy’s pocket when he’s not paying attention.


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1102
SBU Men's Basketball / Re: Game 31: at UMBC, 3/3 7pm
« on: March 03, 2020, 07:39:26 pm »
8 for 12 from three, only up three


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1103
SBU Men's Basketball / Re: Game 31: at UMBC, 3/3 7pm
« on: March 03, 2020, 01:51:18 pm »
Elijah is a go tonight.


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1104
SBU Men's Basketball / Re: Game 31: at UMBC, 3/3 7pm
« on: March 03, 2020, 11:50:58 am »
We are a three-point favorite tonight. If all the favorites win, we play Lowell here on Saturday.

1105
SBU Men's Basketball / Re: Game 31: at UMBC, 3/3 7pm
« on: March 02, 2020, 06:42:51 pm »
The question I have is, does this game mean everything, or does this game mean nothing.  We have no clue how 5, 6, and 7 are going to work out so this really means hosting Hartford in a semi or going to Hartford for a semi.

Edited 35 seconds later:  I'm going to answer my own question - karma will find a way to have us play Albany in the quarters and they will relish the fact that they can knock us out.

Let's do the math.  Although possible, this is what would have to happen for us to play UA in the quarters (let's assume every game is a 50/50; that is, no home field or better team advantage);

- We would have to win vs UMBC OR Hartford would need to lose to Maine (3/4 chance that this will happen out of all possible outcomes);

- UNH would need to lose at home to UML (1/2 chance that this will happen);

- UA would need to win at UVM (1/2 chance that this will happen);

So, probability wise that would mean (3/4) * (1/2) * (1/2) = 3/16 = 18.75% chance of this occurring, and that ignores home field/better team advantages.  I conclude, not likely.

Hope I didn't scare anybody here.

There’s also the chance that we win, Lowell wins and UA loses. In that case, Lowell, UMBC and Albany are all 7-9, all 3-3 against each other, and Albany slides to 7 with no wins over the top three.

I think.


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1106
SBU Men's Basketball / Game 31: at UMBC, 3/3 7pm
« on: March 02, 2020, 10:17:21 am »
UMBC (14-16, 7-8 America East)
Last 10: 6-4
Last Game: Maine 74, UMBC 48 on 2/29/20
Last Game with SBU: Stony Brook 74, UMBC 63 on 2/1/20; Olaniyi game-high 21; UMBC 5-26 from three
Checkmate Unofficial Line: Stony Brook -2
NET Ranking: TBA
KenPom Rating: Stony Brook 174, UMBC 276
KenPom Prediction: Stony Brook 66, UMBC 63
Listen/Watch:
TV: https://umbcretrievers.com/links/mj7lov
Notables:
6-2/180 sr G KJ Jackson 13.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.6 spg
6-10/210 jr F Brandon Horvath 10.5 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.0 spg, .351 3-pt FG%
6-3/225 so F RJ Eytle-Rock 9.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.5 apg, .364 3-pt FG%
6-3/165 so G LJ Owens 9.5 ppg, .352 3-pt FG%, .845 FT%
6-8/240 jr F Dimitrije Spasojevic 9.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg, .609 FG%

This isn't the team that I want to face with the 2 on the line. They just got humiliated up in Maine, and you forget just how good they were for three weeks, winning five straight games to launch themselves back into contention for a first-round home game.

They'll undoubtedly steal an occasional glance at Durham on Tuesday night. If UNH happens to falter against Lowell, that puts UMBC in the driver's seat for the #4 spot, with Albany needing to go to Vermont in their finale. I don't care if UVM has clinched; that's not a good UA team. If UMBC and UNH are even at 8-8, UMBC gets the nod with its win over top-ranked UVM. But they need that UNH gaffe to happen first.

Care to guess who our best three-point shooter has been in conference? Answer: Makale Foreman, who's been in a terrible shooting slump yet is still our best option at 32-plus percent in AE play. He had a couple eye-roll hoists against UA. The bottom line is though that we're going to need him if we want to make a run.

I wonder if Elijah returns for this one. Do we really want his re-entry into the lineup to come during the AE tournament, or can he give us some minutes in the finale?

I think when considering where we stand in the conference tournament, it's important to remember that none of these teams are invincible. Beating Vermont at Patrick will undoubtedly be a tall task, but we've shown it can be done – and had a lead late even without Olaniyi. Of course, the win feels like a decade ago with the way we're playing now, but for 40 minutes, sure, we can do it.

With UMBC, you may recall that Spasojevic dropped 17 on us and was the only one scoring when UMBC wasn't knocking them down from deep. He's a traditional back-to-the-basket guy, which you don't see too much of in the AE. However, he was hurt in the Maine game and his status is uncertain for Tuesday. We'll take any edge we can get.

It feels like the last few times we've played UMBC – ever since Will Darley lit us up at IFCU a couple years back – the Retrievers have shot the ball poorly from deep. 5 for 26 last game against us, and they were 3 for 23 in Bangor. That's kind of the difference between the America East and the power conferences. Guys in the latter category knock down open threes; in our league they do so with less regularity. As far as threes go, UMBC and SBU rank seventh and eighth in conference play, both around 30 percent. Looking at it more broadly, according to KenPom, only Vermont (92) and UMass Lowell (144) rank in the top 200 in adjusted offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions against average defense).

Both teams need it. Ought to be a good game ... which is to say close. Doubtful that it's pretty.

1107
SBU Men's Basketball / Re: Game 30: at Albany, 2/29 7pm
« on: February 29, 2020, 08:53:06 pm »
We’ll take it. On to Baltimore. Win or a Hartford loss and we have the 2.


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1108
SBU Men's Basketball / Re: Game 30: at Albany, 2/29 7pm
« on: February 29, 2020, 08:38:11 pm »
Drive and kick, drive and kick. Get into the paint and create for others. Loved TPP going hard baseline for the dunk.

Really would like to avoid the 6 seed here in a week.


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1109
SBU Men's Basketball / Re: Game 30: at Albany, 2/29 7pm
« on: February 29, 2020, 08:22:29 pm »
Some good ball movement here early in the second half. Nice finish by Gueye off glass, and Foreman passed up a tough three for a wide open two on the baseline. Keep it coming, guys.


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1110
SBU Men's Basketball / Re: Game 30: at Albany, 2/29 7pm
« on: February 29, 2020, 02:33:21 pm »
Maine just pounding UMBC today. And an impressive showing by UNH too, which puts them in fourth ahead of Albany and UMBC for the time being.

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