UMBC (14-16, 7-8 America East)Last 10: 6-4
Last Game: Maine 74, UMBC 48 on 2/29/20
Last Game with SBU: Stony Brook 74, UMBC 63 on 2/1/20; Olaniyi game-high 21; UMBC 5-26 from three
Checkmate Unofficial Line: Stony Brook -2
NET Ranking: TBA
KenPom Rating: Stony Brook 174, UMBC 276
KenPom Prediction: Stony Brook 66, UMBC 63
Listen/Watch:TV:
https://umbcretrievers.com/links/mj7lovNotables:6-2/180 sr G KJ Jackson 13.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.6 spg
6-10/210 jr F Brandon Horvath 10.5 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.0 spg, .351 3-pt FG%
6-3/225 so F RJ Eytle-Rock 9.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.5 apg, .364 3-pt FG%
6-3/165 so G LJ Owens 9.5 ppg, .352 3-pt FG%, .845 FT%
6-8/240 jr F Dimitrije Spasojevic 9.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg, .609 FG%
This isn't the team that I want to face with the 2 on the line. They just got humiliated up in Maine, and you forget just how good they were for three weeks, winning five straight games to launch themselves back into contention for a first-round home game.
They'll undoubtedly steal an occasional glance at Durham on Tuesday night. If UNH happens to falter against Lowell, that puts UMBC in the driver's seat for the #4 spot, with Albany needing to go to Vermont in their finale. I don't care if UVM has clinched; that's not a good UA team. If UMBC and UNH are even at 8-8, UMBC gets the nod with its win over top-ranked UVM. But they need that UNH gaffe to happen first.
Care to guess who our best three-point shooter has been in conference? Answer: Makale Foreman, who's been in a terrible shooting slump yet is still our best option at 32-plus percent in AE play. He had a couple eye-roll hoists against UA. The bottom line is though that we're going to need him if we want to make a run.
I wonder if Elijah returns for this one. Do we really want his re-entry into the lineup to come during the AE tournament, or can he give us some minutes in the finale?
I think when considering where we stand in the conference tournament, it's important to remember that none of these teams are invincible. Beating Vermont at Patrick will undoubtedly be a tall task, but we've shown it can be done – and had a lead late even without Olaniyi. Of course, the win feels like a decade ago with the way we're playing now, but for 40 minutes, sure, we can do it.
With UMBC, you may recall that Spasojevic dropped 17 on us and was the only one scoring when UMBC wasn't knocking them down from deep. He's a traditional back-to-the-basket guy, which you don't see too much of in the AE. However, he was hurt in the Maine game and his status is uncertain for Tuesday. We'll take any edge we can get.
It feels like the last few times we've played UMBC – ever since Will Darley lit us up at IFCU a couple years back – the Retrievers have shot the ball poorly from deep. 5 for 26 last game against us, and they were 3 for 23 in Bangor. That's kind of the difference between the America East and the power conferences. Guys in the latter category knock down open threes; in our league they do so with less regularity. As far as threes go, UMBC and SBU rank seventh and eighth in conference play, both around 30 percent. Looking at it more broadly, according to KenPom, only Vermont (92) and UMass Lowell (144) rank in the top 200 in adjusted offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions against average defense).
Both teams need it. Ought to be a good game ... which is to say close. Doubtful that it's pretty.